Latent Identity, Contained Conflict: Cognitive Security In Jakarta's 2017 and 2024 Elections
DOI:
10.51601/ijersc.v7i5.1126Published:
2026-10-29Downloads
Abstract
Indonesia treats digital disinformation as a national security threat, yet election-risk maps list hoaxes without explaining how they become offline conflict. This article compares two Jakarta gubernatorial elections that shared similar information and identity vulnerabilities but ended differently: the 2017 contest saw mass mobilisation and street violence, whereas no comparable mobilisation was identified in 2024. Similar vulnerability does not imply identical political triggers, and the comparison treats that difference as a rival explanation. The article develops a cognitive security framework in which information threats pass through perception shift, collective mobilisation, and clash, with social vulnerability as an amplifier and collective verification as a possible dampener. Using a most-similar comparative case design, it applies theory-testing process tracing to sixteen public documents, comprising survey releases, election-body statements, news reports, and scholarly studies. Identity considerations remained salient in 2024 and internet penetration in Jakarta reached 87.51 percent, yet surveys using different instruments indicate weaker religious alignment of vote choice than in 2017. The election supervisory body named hoaxes and identity-based campaigning as risks and engaged religious and community leaders before the campaign, but the documents cannot separate this pre-emptive verification from the absence of a comparable trigger, nor fix the exact point at which the escalation chain stopped. The article reframes cognitive security as a community and institutional capacity and proposes stage-specific early warning indicators for election and security agencies.
References
[1] Adhilni, R., Gultom, R. A. G., Saragih, H. J. R., Murtiana, S., & Kusuma, A. A. (2025). Total defense systems in national resilience strategy: Assessing Indonesia's readiness to confront hybrid threats. Journal of Governance and Social Policy, 6(2), 300–323. https://doi.org/10.24815/gaspol.v6i2.10
[2] Adji, B. P. (2024, December 12). Tak ajukan gugatan ke MK hingga tenggat berakhir, RK-Suswono akui kemenangan Pramono-Rano?. Republika. https://news.republika.co.id/berita/socb8y409/tak-ajukan-gugatan-ke-mk-hingga-tenggat-berakhir-rksuswono-akui-kemenangan-pramonorano
[3] Agus, M., Niswaty, R., Nur, A. C., & Didin. (2026). The AGUSTIF model: An adaptive governance framework for hybrid electoral conflict management in South Sulawesi. International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.160111
[4] Ajao, T., & Wielenga, C. (2017). Citizen journalism and conflict transformation: The Ushahidi's response to Kenya's 2008 post-election violence. Matatu, 49, 467–486. https://doi.org/10.1163/18757421-04902012
[5] Amarasinghe, A., Nanlohy, S., Morgan, T., Hammond, D., Dahiya, Y., & Bailo, F. (2026). Mapping violence perceptions through YouTube comments: A new approach to real-time violence monitoring. EPJ Data Science, 15, 47. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-026-00649-y
[6] Asmara, T. (2016, November 4). Mass protest turns violent in Jakarta. BenarNews. https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/protest-violence-11042016155349.html
[7] Asosiasi Penyelenggara Jasa Internet Indonesia. (2016). Infografis penetrasi dan perilaku pengguna internet Indonesia: Survey 2016. APJII.
[8] Asosiasi Penyelenggara Jasa Internet Indonesia. (2024). Survei penetrasi internet dan perilaku penggunaan internet 2024. APJII.
[9] Badrinathan, S. (2021). Educative interventions to combat misinformation: Evidence from a field experiment in India. American Political Science Review, 115(4), 1325–1341. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000459
[10] Badrinathan, S., Chauchard, S., & Siddiqui, N. (2025). Misinformation and support for vigilantism: An experiment in India and Pakistan. American Political Science Review, 119(2), 947–965. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055424000790
[11] Barron, P., Jaffrey, S., & Varshney, A. (2016). When large conflicts subside: The ebbs and flows of violence in post-Suharto Indonesia. Journal of East Asian Studies, 16(2), 191–217. https://doi.org/10.1017/jea.2016.6
[12] Bazzi, S., Blair, R. A., Blattman, C., Dube, O., Gudgeon, M., & Peck, R. M. (2022). The promise and pitfalls of conflict prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 764–779. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01016
[13] Beach, D., & Pedersen, R. B. (2019). Process-tracing methods: Foundations and guidelines (2nd ed.). University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.10072208
[14] Benford, R. D., & Snow, D. A. (2000). Framing processes and social movements: An overview and assessment. Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 611–639. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.611
[15] Bennett, A., & Checkel, J. T. (2015). Process tracing: From metaphor to analytic tool. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139858472
[16] Bhavnani, R., Findley, M. G., & Kuklinski, J. H. (2009). Rumor dynamics in ethnic violence. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 876–892. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002238160909077X
[17] Birch, S., Daxecker, U., & Höglund, K. (2020). Electoral violence: An introduction. Journal of Peace Research, 57(1), 3–14. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319889657
[18] Bisnis.com. (2024, August 1). Antisipasi isu SARA di Pilkada, Bawaslu dekati parpol hingga tokoh agama. Bisnis.com. https://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20240801/15/1787479/antisipasi-isu-sara-di-pilkada-bawaslu-dekati-parpol-hingga-tokoh-agama
[19] Bisnis.com. (2024, August 1). Bawaslu rilis tingkat kerawanan Pilgub Jakarta, potensi kampanye SARA tinggi. Bisnis.com. https://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20240801/15/1787470/bawaslu-rilis-tingkat-kerawanan-pilgub-jakarta-potensi-kampanye-sara-tinggi
[20] Botara, S. J. (2022). Experience of living with Islam-Christianity in North Maluku, Indonesia. International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences, 3(3), 1170–1176. https://doi.org/10.51601/ijersc.v3i3.383
[21] Casino, F. (2025). Unveiling the multifaceted concept of cognitive security: Trends, perspectives, and future challenges. Technology in Society, 83, 102956. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.102956
[22] Collier, D. (2011). Understanding process tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics, 44(4), 823–830. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096511001429
[23] Deppe, C., & Schaal, G. S. (2024). Cognitive warfare: A conceptual analysis of the NATO ACT cognitive warfare exploratory concept. Frontiers in Big Data, 7, 1452129. https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2024.1452129
[24] Dowd, C., Justino, P., Kishi, R., & Marchais, G. (2020). Comparing 'new' and 'old' media for violence monitoring and crisis response: Evidence from Kenya. Research & Politics, 7(3), 2053168020937592. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168020937592
[25] Elsaesser, C., Patton, D. U., Weinstein, E., Santiago, J., Clarke, A., & Eschmann, R. (2021). Small becomes big, fast: Adolescent perceptions of how social media features escalate online conflict to offline violence. Children and Youth Services Review, 122, 105898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2020.105898
[26] Fossati, D. (2019). The resurgence of ideology in Indonesia: Political Islam, aliran and political behaviour. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 38(2), 119–148. https://doi.org/10.1177/1868103419868400
[27] George, A. L., & Holl, J. E. (1997). The warning-response problem and missed opportunities in preventive diplomacy. Carnegie Corporation of New York. https://carnegie.org/publication/the-warning-response-problem-and-missed-opportunities-in-preventive-diplomacy/
[28] Gitiyarko, V. (2024, July 16). Survei Pilkada 2024: Pertimbangan rasional pemilih Jakarta. Kompas.id. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/survei-pilkada-2024-pertimbangan-rasional-pemilih-jakarta
[29] Grahn, H., & Taipalus, T. (2025). Defining comprehensive cognitive security in the digital era: Literature review and concept analysis. Journal of Information Warfare, 24(2), 39–59. https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202505134216
[30] Greenhill, K. M., & Oppenheim, B. (2017). Rumor has it: The adoption of unverified information in conflict zones. International Studies Quarterly, 61(3), 660–676. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqx015
[31] Guess, A. M., Lerner, M., Lyons, B., Montgomery, J. M., Nyhan, B., Reifler, J., & Sircar, N. (2020). A digital media literacy intervention increases discernment between mainstream and false news in the United States and India. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(27), 15536–15545. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920498117
[32] Hadiz, V. R. (2017). Indonesia's year of democratic setbacks: Towards a new phase of deepening illiberalism?. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 53(3), 261–278. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2017.1410311
[33] Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M. P., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., Hoyles, F., Hultman, L., Högbladh, S., Jansen, R., Mouhleb, N., Muhammad, S. A., Nilsson, D., Nygård, H. M., Olafsdottir, G., Petrova, K., Randahl, D., Rød, E. G., Schneider, G., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155–174. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319823860
[34] Huang, G., Jia, W., & Yu, W. (2024). Media literacy interventions improve resilience to misinformation: A meta-analytic investigation of overall effect and moderating factors. Communication Research, 53(7), 899–926. https://doi.org/10.1177/00936502241288103
[35] Humprecht, E., Esser, F., & Van Aelst, P. (2020). Resilience to online disinformation: A framework for cross-national comparative research. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 25(3), 493–516. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161219900126
[36] Indikator Politik Indonesia. (2017). Temuan survei Provinsi DKI Jakarta, 12-20 Januari 2017 [Rilis survei]. Indikator Politik Indonesia.
[37] Kurten, M. (2025). Why we fight for fractured truths: How misinformation fuels political violence in democracies. MediaWell, Social Science Research Council. https://mediawell.ssrc.org/research-reviews/why-we-fight-for-fractured-truths-how-misinformation-fuels-political-violence-in-democracies/
[38] Lee, A. (2020). Online hoaxes, existential threat, and internet shutdown: A case study of securitization dynamics in Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Social Sciences and Humanities, 10(1), 17–34. https://ejournal.brin.go.id/jissh/article/view/8650
[39] Lembaga Ketahanan Nasional Republik Indonesia. (2023). Buku ajar bidang studi ketahanan nasional (4th ed.). Lemhannas Press.
[40] Lembaga Survei Indonesia. (2024). Rilis temuan survei: Pengaruh Anies di pemilihan gubernur Jakarta [Rilis survei, 18 September 2024]. Lembaga Survei Indonesia.
[41] Leverso, J., Diouane, Y., & Mohler, G. (2025). Measuring online-offline spillover of gang violence using bivariate Hawkes processes. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 41, 103–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-024-09592-5
[42] Lewandowsky, S., Stritzke, W. G. K., Freund, A. M., Oberauer, K., & Krueger, J. I. (2013). Misinformation, disinformation, and violent conflict: From Iraq and the "War on Terror" to future threats to peace. American Psychologist, 68(7), 487–501. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034515
[43] Lim, M. (2017). Freedom to hate: Social media, algorithmic enclaves, and the rise of tribal nationalism in Indonesia. Critical Asian Studies, 49(3), 411–427. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2017.1341188
[44] Mahoney, J. (2012). The logic of process tracing tests in the social sciences. Sociological Methods & Research, 41(4), 570–597. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124112437709
[45] MC Kabupaten Bengkalis. (2024, January 31). KPU RI terbitkan PKPU Pilkada 2024, ini jadwal dan tahapannya. InfoPublik. https://infopublik.id/kategori/pemilu/821870/kpu-ri-terbitkan-pkpu-pilkada-2024-ini-jadwal-dan-tahapannya
[46] Mendieta, M. V., Warren, T. C., & Vaca, C. (2026). Predicting organized collective violence through hostile discourse in social media. EPJ Data Science, 15, 3. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00596-0
[47] Mietzner, M., & Muhtadi, B. (2018). Explaining the 2016 Islamist mobilisation in Indonesia: Religious intolerance, militant groups and the politics of accommodation. Asian Studies Review, 42(3), 479–497. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357823.2018.1473335
[48] Mueller, H., & Rauh, C. (2018). Reading between the lines: Prediction of political violence using newspaper text. American Political Science Review, 112(2), 358–375. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055417000570
[49] Müller, K., & Schwarz, C. (2021). Fanning the flames of hate: Social media and hate crime. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(4), 2131–2167. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa045
[50] Nivada, A., & Rassanjani, S. (2024). Pemetaan risiko politik dan keamanan Pemilu 2024: Mekanisme kewaspadaan dini dan implikasinya. Jurnal Trias Politika, 8(1), 33–48. https://doi.org/10.33373/jtp.v8i1.6147
[51] O'Brien, B. C., Harris, I. B., Beckman, T. J., Reed, D. A., & Cook, D. A. (2014). Standards for reporting qualitative research: A synthesis of recommendations. Academic Medicine, 89(9), 1245–1251. https://doi.org/10.1097/ACM.0000000000000388
[52] Palihapitiya, M., Khan, S. A., Ahmed, F., Shenouda, B., & Nelson, E. (2025). Addressing critical gaps in data collection and analysis in atrocities prevention early warning systems. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 20(1), 20–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/15423166241293353
[53] Panca Putra S., R. Z., Gusnar, I., Solihin, D., Tantri, S., Andrea, H. P., Trismawan, D., & Santoso, S. (2024). Reactualization of national resilience: A historical and conceptual study. Jurnal Lemhannas RI, 12(1), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.55960/jlri.v12i1.558
[54] Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2021). The psychology of fake news. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 25(5), 388–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2021.02.007
[55] Piazza, J. A. (2022). Fake news: The effects of social media disinformation on domestic terrorism. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 15(1), 55–77. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2021.1895263
[56] Porter, E., & Wood, T. J. (2021). The global effectiveness of fact-checking: Evidence from simultaneous experiments in Argentina, Nigeria, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(37), e2104235118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2104235118
[57] Rahadian, L. (2016, October 25). Satu dua dan tiga untuk Agus, Ahok, dan Anies. CNN Indonesia. https://www.cnnindonesia.com/politik/20161025205250-32-167935/satu-dua-dan-tiga-untuk-agus-ahok-dan-anies/
[58] Rød, E. G., Gåsste, T., & Hegre, H. (2024). A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 96–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.001
[59] Rohman, A., Pang, N. L.-S., & Pitaloka, D. (2020). The episodes of a Facebook group for information sharing in the Ambon 2011 conflict prevention movement, Indonesia. Information, Communication & Society, 23(4), 539–554. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2018.1521456
[60] Roozenbeek, J., van der Linden, S., Goldberg, B., Rathje, S., & Lewandowsky, S. (2022). Psychological inoculation improves resilience against misinformation on social media. Science Advances, 8(34), eabo6254. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo6254
[61] Salsabila, M., Slam, Z., Alamsyah, M. N., & Hilmi, H. D. (2024). National resilience in historical and geostrategic perspectives: Essence and conception. Jurnal Lemhannas RI, 12(4), 435–452. https://doi.org/10.55960/jlri.v12i4.956
[62] Sekretariat Kabinet Republik Indonesia. (2017, March 6). Ahok wajib cuti kampanye putaran II, Mendagri kembali akan tunjuk Plt Gubernur DKI Jakarta. Sekretariat Kabinet Republik Indonesia. https://setkab.go.id/ahok-wajib-cuti-kampanye-putaran-ii-mendagri-kembali-akan-tunjuk-plt-gubernur-dki-jakarta/
[63] Soelistyowati, R. D., Subhan, A., & Sigit, R. R. (2024). Virtual public sphere on social media (Habermas' critical study of the digital hoax phenomenon WhatsApp group alumni Iluni Menwa UI). International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences, 5(2), 284–289. https://doi.org/10.51601/ijersc.v5i2.737
[64] Stuart, F. (2020). Code of the tweet: Urban gang violence in the social media age. Social Problems, 67(2), 191–207. https://doi.org/10.1093/socpro/spz010
[65] Subarjo, A. H., & Setianingsih, W. (2020). Literasi berita hoaxs di internet dan implikasinya terhadap ketahanan pribadi mahasiswa. Jurnal Ketahanan Nasional, 26(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.22146/jkn.51109
[66] Tapsell, R. (2021). Social media and elections in Southeast Asia: The emergence of subversive, underground campaigning. Asian Studies Review, 45(1), 117–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357823.2020.1841093
[67] Undang-Undang Nomor 27 Tahun 2022 tentang Pelindungan Data Pribadi. (2022). Lembaran Negara Republik Indonesia.
[68] Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2012 tentang Penanganan Konflik Sosial. (2012). Lembaran Negara Republik Indonesia.
[69] Varshney, A. (2001). Ethnic conflict and civil society: India and beyond. World Politics, 53(3), 362–398. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2001.0012
[70] Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. Science, 359(6380), 1146–1151. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559
[71] Wählisch, M., & Kufus, F. (2026). Structural dilemmas of PeaceTech: AI, power, and peacebuilding in the digital age. Peacebuilding. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/21647259.2026.2644694
[72] Walter, N., Cohen, J., Holbert, R. L., & Morag, Y. (2020). Fact-checking: A meta-analysis of what works and for whom. Political Communication, 37(3), 350–375. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2019.1668894
[73] Wardle, C., & Scales, D. (2025). Advocating for a community-centred model for responding to potential information harms. Nature Human Behaviour, 9(8), 1546–1556. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-025-02233-2
[74] Winarko, H., & Avianto, L. (2024). Strengthening digital transformation of mass media for national resilience. Jurnal Lemhannas RI, 12(1), 109–116. https://doi.org/10.55960/jlri.v12i1.559
[75] Yang Hui, J. (2020). Social media and the 2019 Indonesian elections: Hoax takes the centre stage. In Southeast Asian Affairs 2020 (M. Cook & D. Singh, Eds.), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (pp. 155–172). https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/southeast-asian-affairs-2020/social-media-and-the-2019-indonesian-elections-hoax-takes-the-centre-stage/A8B3D0C5325002FA936F9A60C03C7AA9
[76] Yankoski, M., Weninger, T., & Scheirer, W. (2020). An AI early warning system to monitor online disinformation, stop violence, and protect elections. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 76(2), 85–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2020.1728976
License
Copyright (c) 2026 International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
