From The Job Market To Poverty: An Analysis of Economic Growth Determinants In Java
DOI:
10.51601/ijersc.v7i5.1094Published:
2026-10-10Downloads
Abstract
Economic growth is one of the important indicators in describing the performance of regional development, especially in the Java Island region which has a large contribution to the Indonesian economy. However, differences in labor market conditions, price stability, quality of human resources, investment, government spending, and poverty can cause variations in economic growth between regions. This study aims to analyze the influence of the Open Unemployment Rate, inflation, investment, Human Development Index, local government capital expenditure, and the number of poor people on economic growth in six provinces on the island of Java during the period 2015–2025. The research uses panel data analyzed using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The results of the study show that the Open Unemployment Rate, Inflation and the Number of the Poor have a negative and significant effect on economic growth, respectively. The Human Development Index has a positive and significant effect. The number of poor people has a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, investment and capital expenditure do not show a significant influence. In addition, all independent variables in this study simultaneously had a significant effect on economic growth from the R2 value, it was shown that the independent variable was able to explain 65.9% of the variation in economic growth. The findings show that the variation in economic growth in six provinces of Java Island is related to labor market conditions, price stability, quality of human development, and socio-economic conditions of the community.
Keywords:
Economic Growth; Unemployment; Inflation; HDI and Poverty.References
[1]. Albasyari, N. N., & Priyadi, U. (2023). Analisis faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Jawa Tengah 2017–2021. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 2(2), 172–180. https://doi.org/10.20885/JKEK.vol2.iss2.art8.
[2]. Astari, M., Hamzah, L., & Ratih, A. (2019). Hukum OKUN: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(1), 37-44. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v8i1.32.
[3]. Basuki, A. T. (2021). Analisis Data Panel dalam Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis (Dilengkapi dengan Penggunaan EViews). Yogyakarta: PT RajaGrafindo Persada.
[4]. Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2023). Analisis Data Panel dalam Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis. . Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.
[5]. Basuki, A. T., Purwaningsih, Y., Soesilo, A. M., & Mulyanto, M. (2020). The Effect of Fiscal Policy and Foreign Direct Investment on Regional Economy in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi &Amp; Studi Pembangunan, 21(1), 53–68. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5031.
[6]. Gahari, R. M., & Hasmarini, M. I. (2024). Do foreign investment, human development index, labor, and poverty influence economic growth in Indonesia? Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v4i2.1034.
[7]. Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis. Seventh Edition. New York: Pearson.
[8]. Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics. Fourth Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
[9]. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
[10]. Haq, N., & Yuliadi, I. (2018). Analisis pengaruh investasi, angkatan kerja dan pendidikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Pulau Kalimantan. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 2(2), 102–111. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v2i2.9876.
[11]. Kurniawan, M. L., & Prawoto, N. (2014). Pertumubuhan Ekonomi dan Penentuan Titik Ambang Batas Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 15(1), 71–77. Retrieved from https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1263.
[12]. Ma’ruf, A., & Wihastuti, L. (2008). PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA: Determinan dan Prospeknya. Jurnal Ekonomi &Amp; Studi Pembangunan, , 9(1), 44–55. Retrieved from https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1526.
[13]. Murti, T. H., & Sahara. (2019). The Effect of Investment on Regional Economic Growth in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 8(2), 163–181. DOI: 10.29244/jekp.8.2.2019.163-181.
[14]. Romer, D. (2019). Advanced Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
[15]. Sijabat, R. (2024). Democracy, Human Development, Income Distribution and Regional Economic Performance: A Panel Data Analysis of 34 Provinces in Indonesia. . Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, , 28(1). DOI: 10.22146/jsp.76139.
[16]. Simatupang, F., & Marselina, M. (2023). Economic Growth: Can be Influenced by Exports, Inflation, and Government Expenditure on ASEAN-7 Countries during the AFTA Period? . Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 7(2), 127–146. DOI: 10.18196/jerss.
[17]. Sugiyono. (2019). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: Alfabeta.
[18]. Suprianto, S., Affandy, M. L., Faradis, R., & Musafir, M. M. (2026). Relationship Analysis Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate in East Java: Okun's Curve Anomaly Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic. Academia Open , Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): June, https://doi.org/10.21070/acopen.11.2026.12750.
[19]. Suyanto, S. (2023). Foreign direct investment: Does it increase economic growth? Economics Development Analysis Journal, 12(1), 59–70. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v12i1.60923.
[20]. Todaro, M., & Smith, S. (2020). Economic Development (13th ed.). Pearson.
[21]. Wahyudin, D., & Yuliadi, I. (2013). DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA, INDONESIA. Jurnal Ekonomi &Amp; Studi Pembangunan, 14(2), 120–126. Retrieved from https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1255.
[22]. Wau, T. (2022). Economic Growth, Human Capital, Public Investment, and Poverty in Underdeveloped Regions in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 23(2). DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15307. .
[23]. Yuliadi, I. (2020). Determinants of Regional Economic Growth in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi &Amp; Studi Pembangunan, 21(1), 125–136. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5035.
License
Copyright (c) 2026 International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
